Is Britain's political instability a sign of ungovernability? The question looms large as the country grapples with a revolving door of prime ministers, each facing their own set of challenges. The latest in this line is Keir Starmer, whose leadership has been under scrutiny following a series of setbacks. Starmer's Labour Party, having won a substantial majority in the 2024 election, promised a decade of national renewal. However, less than two years into his premiership, Starmer finds himself in a precarious position. The recent local election results, which saw Labour candidates rejected across England, Scotland, and Wales, have raised questions about Starmer's leadership and his ability to deliver on his promises.
The challenges Britain faces are multifaceted. The country has yet to fully recover from the 2008 financial crisis, with real wages stagnating and only recently ticking up due to inflationary shocks from the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Britain's departure from the European Union has had a significant impact on GDP per person, and productivity growth remains tepid. The country's debt has crept up, making its government bonds the highest-yielding among G7 nations, and industrial electricity costs are the highest in the group.
The electoral system itself is under strain. Britain's first-past-the-post system, once effective with two dominant parties, is now witnessing a five-way fight in England and a six-way contest in Scotland and Wales. This shift has been driven by the decline of the traditional Labour and Conservative duopoly, with the addition of centrist Liberal Democrats, ultra-progressive Greens, hard-right Reform UK, and nationalist parties advocating for Scottish and Welsh independence. These developments threaten the very fabric of the United Kingdom, which has been united since 1707 and Wales since 1536.
Amidst these troubles, there's a temptation to conclude that good government is nearly impossible in Britain, and any leader would struggle to navigate the current challenges. However, Anthony Seldon, a renowned biographer of British prime ministers, disagrees. He argues that Britain is not ungovernable, despite the efforts of recent prime ministers to make it so. Seldon highlights a string of failings among Starmer's predecessors, painting Boris Johnson as 'Rooseveltian' in ambition but not in delivery, and Liz Truss as 'Reaganite' in her ideological fervor.
Rishi Sunak, a fan of tight money and a smaller state, was described as 'Hooverite'. However, by the time Sunak took office, the country was exhausted and damaged by the Conservatives' missteps, making it unlikely for the first British Asian prime minister to win the 2024 election. Starmer, in Seldon's view, lacks a compelling political story and has struggled to articulate his vision, echoing a personality rather than a political project.
Starmer's leadership has been criticized for its lack of charisma and inability to sell his agenda effectively. Ben Ansell, a political scientist, likens Starmer to a doctor who tuts and says, 'Someone should do something,' without prescribing any 'hard medicine' to address Britain's ailments. Starmer's government has been constrained by its campaign promises, leading to policy missteps and a lack of revenue from politically unpopular sources.
The situation raises a deeper question about Britain's political addiction to frequent leadership changes, akin to English soccer clubs' habit of changing managers. Starmer's allies point to improvements in the NHS and Britain's restored credibility on the world stage post-Brexit. However, the public's perception remains a challenge, with Starmer's achievements often overshadowed by the 'snake oil' sold by Reform or the Greens.
The path forward for Labour is uncertain. Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, is seen as a better salesman and a potential savior for Labour's electoral prospects. Burnham's 'Manchesterism' brand of aspirational, business-friendly socialism has helped make Manchester the fastest-growing city in the country. However, Burnham's route to Downing Street is fraught, as he must first win a seat in Parliament, and the stakes are high.
If Burnham loses to Reform in the special election, it could signal the end of Labour's electoral hopes for years and push Britain further down the 'dark path' warned of by Starmer. The question remains: Is Britain's political instability a sign of ungovernability, or is there a way to navigate these challenges and restore stability?
